The views expressed at last week’s conference on BiH at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington were, overall, a strong endorsement of the Dayton constitutional structure and BiH self-government. Conference participants included top governmental officials from BiH, key U.S. officials, representatives of international financial institutions, and many others. There was, of course, a wide range of views among conference participants, but a few main points emerged from the conference. First, the Entities are at the forefront of reform, and they are cooperating. Second, the Dayton constitution is not what is holding BiH back. Third, the RS’s planned referendum does not threaten cooperation and progress.
1) The Entities are at the forefront of reform, and they are cooperating.
The most powerful theme to emerge from the conference was that the Entities are committed to the EU-sponsored Reform Agenda and are cooperating closely with each other as they implement it. RS Prime Minister Željka Prime Minister Cvijanović and Federation Prime Minister Fadil Novalić explained how the entities are working together to implement the Reform Agenda. Prime Minister Cvijanović emphasized that the RS is implementing the Reform Agenda not just for purposes of EU accession—a distant prospect—but for economic development, which is the RS’s most urgent priority. She talked about her close cooperation with Prime Minister Novalić on reform, including monthly meetings to plan inter-Entity harmonization of laws.
U.S. Ambassador to BiH Maureen Cormack praised Prime Ministers Cvijanović and Novalić for being “at the forefront” of leadership of the reform initiative. High Representative Valentin Inzko praised the two prime ministers for being “very committed” to the Reform Agenda. He said, “I commend the Prime Ministers warmly for their reform efforts,” and noted the “very good chemistry” between them.
Conference speakers applauded the ambition of the Reform Agenda and underlined the importance of it being a product of the Entity governments and BiH’s council of ministers rather than a document dictated by the European Union. RS Finance Minister Zoran Tegeltija observed that reforms arrived at through consensus are implemented while imposed reforms break down.
Ian Brown, head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) Sarajevo office, agreed, emphasizing that imposed laws and reforms do not work and that the Reform Agenda belongs to BiH leaders, not international institutions. Gary O’Callaghan, the Senior Advisor to the EU Special Representative in BiH, highlighted the central role played by BiH leaders in developing the Reform Agenda. He noted that that the RS has gotten ahead of the Federation on reform during the past seven years.
Mr. Brown praised the Reform Agenda as an ambitious and detailed plan with clear responsibilities divided between BiH and the Entities. Nadeem Ilahi, Chief of the IMF’s BiH Mission agreed that the Reform Agenda was promising and said he was optimistic that BiH could enjoy very significant growth if its leaders implement it.
Not everyone at the conference considered this good news. Professor Daniel Serwer repeatedly criticized inter-Entity cooperation because of his view that it has “the intended side effect of displacing the state.” He later took issue with the Entities being responsible for most of the issues under the Reform Agenda because he saw it as empowering Entities and disempowering BiH institutions. But BiH Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Crnadak and Prime Minister Cvijanović rejected this view and explained that the allocation of responsibilities under the Reform Agenda is—as it must be—simply a reflection of the allocation of competencies between BiH and the Entities under the Constitution. They also emphasized that the Entities, in addition to working with each other, are also cooperating on reform with BiH institutions.
2) The Dayton Constitution is not what is holding BiH back.
A few conference participants blamed the Dayton Constitution for BiH’s dysfunction and called for changes to reduce Entity competencies and protections of Constituent Peoples. But the idea of centralizing BiH drew little support at the conference. For example, Ellen Goldstein of the World Bank and Nadeem Ilahi of the IMF both emphasized that BiH’s complex constitutional structure was not what has held BiH back from creating an efficient and effective public sector. Ms. Goldstein explained that many of BiH’s economic problems stem from the legacy of Yugoslavia’s state-centered economic system and could be remedied without any changes to the Dayton constitutional structure.
3) The RS’s planned referendum does not threaten cooperation and progress.
The conference left a strong impression that the RS’s planned referendum seeking citizens’ views on the laws imposed on them by the High Representative, especially the laws on the BiH Court and Prosecutor’s Office, will not derail reform efforts or inter-Entity cooperation. Prime Minister Cvijanović explained why the RS has the legal right to hold the referendum and why it is necessary to help spur reforms of the justice system. She also emphasized that the RS is continuing to participate in the EU Structured Dialogue on Justice and is hopeful that it will resolve the concerns underlying the planned referendum.
Asked what effect the referendum would have on relations between the Entities, Prime Minister Cvijanović said that the Entities would continue to cooperate and that the referendum would have no impact. Similarly, Federation Prime Minister Novalić indicated that he did not support the referendum but emphasized that the Entities are putting aside issues on which they do not have consensus.
The SAIS Conference provided an important service to BiH by dispelling the myth that it is hurtling toward dissolution and needs foreign intervention and a new Constitution. BiH’s Entities are cooperating as they implement a promising Reform Agenda, and there is no reason why the RS’s planned referendum will derail those efforts.
